The Fed rate hike refers to the decision of theFederal Reserve System Governing Council to adjust monetary policy and raisethe federal funds rate after its meeting in Washington on interest rates.
The Fed raises interest rates, which essentiallyincreases the lending rate between the Fed and commercial banks, which leads toan increase in the cost of borrowing money between banks and interbanks (thefederal funds rate), and then raises the lending rate between commercialbanks-enterprises and residents. Interest rate, and finally affect the wholesociety's investment, consumption and other behaviors through the way ofinterest rate increase.
1. The time of the meeting
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting (FOMCmeeting) is held 8 times a year in Washington, with an interval of about 6weeks each time.
2022 Fed rate meeting and meeting minutes schedule(ET)
January 25-26: Federal Reserve interest rate decision,press conference;
March 15-16: Fed rate decision, press conference, dotplot, economic forecast;
May 3-4: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, pressconference;
June 14-15: Fed rate decision, press conference, dotplot, economic forecast;
July 26-27: Federal Reserve interest rate decision,press conference;
September 20-21: Federal Reserve interest ratedecision, press conference, dot plot, economic forecast;
November 1-2: Federal Reserve interest rate decision,press conference;
December 13-14: Fed rate decision, press conferences,dot plots, economic forecasts.
2. Federal Reserve Organizational Structure
The Federal Reserve consists of three major parts: theFederal Reserve Board (FRB), the Open Market Committee (FOMC), and 12 regionalFederal Reserve Banks located in major cities across the country. There aremore than 2,000 member banks under these 12 Reserve Banks.
The Federal Reserve Board has seven executive members,consisting of the chairman, vice-chairman and five other members. The sevenexecutive members must be nominated by the president and confirmed by Congressbefore they can take office. The Open Market Committee has 12 members,consisting of 7 executive members of the Reserve Committee and 5 elected by thechairmen of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. .
Federal Reserve Board: the authority that has theleading power in the decision-making and implementation of monetary policy,decides the bank deposit reserve ratio and reserve interest rate, and reviewsthe discount rate;
Open Market Committee: The executive body, which holdsa meeting (interest rate meeting) about every six weeks to decide the marketopen operation policy, that is, the direction of monetary policy adjustment,usually called the benchmark interest rate. There are three adjustmentdirections: raising interest rates, cutting interest rates, maintaining Thecurrent interest rate remains unchanged;
12 local reserve banks: As an important participant,they participate in the implementation of Fed policy and feedback on economicand market conditions.
3. Interest rate hike cycle
According to the previous path of the Fed’s QE exit,the process of raising interest rates can be roughly divided into four stages:the first stage, releasing a clear signal to reduce the scale of purchases; thesecond stage, gradually reducing the scale of bond purchases; the third stage,ending QE; The fourth stage is to start raising interest rates.
Because of the changes in the general environment,unlike the last round of QE that only started to raise interest rates more thana year later, the market generally expects that the interval between the Fed'scurrent round of interest rate hikes and its withdrawal from QE will besignificantly shortened. At the same time, the Federal Reserve may reiteratethat it will start to shrink its balance sheet after the first rate hike, andthe pace will be much faster than the previous cycle. The Fed has clearlystated in the minutes of its December 2021 meeting that "almost allmembers agreed to begin to shrink the balance sheet after the first ratehike" and that "the appropriate rate of balance sheet reduction maybe faster than during the last normalization."
When the Fed starts the interest rate hike cycle, itwill mainly do three things: accelerate the reduction in the scale of bondpurchases, raise interest rates by raising the federal interest rate, andshrink the balance sheet. These three things are progressing layer by layer,and with each layer, the lethality may increase exponentially.
4. The relationship between interest rate hikes andthe rise and fall of the crypto market
The most fundamental impact of U.S. interest ratehikes on the crypto market is that it may create a short-term or long-termliquidity crisis. The fundamental reason for the length of this crisis is: whatrhythm will the Fed use to raise interest rates?
Judging from the most recent round of interest ratehikes, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve raised interestrates 9 times in a row in three years. During this time, Bitcoin justexperienced its second halving, and it really started"Mainstreaming". During the first 5 interest rate hikes (December2015-December 2017), Bitcoin continued to rise as a whole, rising about 100times against the rate hike. The subsequent 4 interest rate hikes wererelatively more violent, and Bitcoin also fell all the way after reaching thehigh point of the second round of halving at the end of 2017, with a maximumdrop of more than 85%.
To sum up, with the “mainstreaming” and “US stockmarketization” of Bitcoin, changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policyhave an increasing impact on Bitcoin’s rise and fall, and even determineBitcoin’s bull and bear form to a large extent. . To put it simply, the Fedraises interest rates from a short-term perspective: it is more negative; froma long-term impact, interest rate hikes are a complex economic issue, and it isnecessary to specifically analyze the reasons for interest rate hikes at thattime? What was the general economic environment at that time and thedevelopment stage and quality of the crypto market itself?